Very good analysis. Some of the economic backlash seems already visible.
Quoting Walter Derzko <[email protected]>:
> OPED The Russians are coming by Walter Derzko March 3 2014
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> After the much anticipated Russian troop invasion of Crimea, the entire
> world has unilaterally reacted in support of Ukrainian sovereignty and
> independence. The risk of eastern Oblast destabilization and invasion is
> high too.
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> Russia can start a war in Crimea, but they won't easily win it. There
> are hopeful signs of eventual de-escalation. Invading Russian troops are
> docile-so far no bloodshed or loss of life. Russian aggression is uniting
> all Ukrainians. Mass pro-Ukrainian rallies were held to oppose the invasion
> in Kharkiv, Odessa , Sumy, Mykolayiv, Kherson, Poltava, Kryvyi Rih and
> Dnipropetrovsk. Ukraine has announced a mobilization of its military
> reserves and patriotic Ukrainians are voluntarily enlisting. Tatars will not
> recognize separatism, and will fight to stay in Ukraine. Putin's goal is to
> discredit Maidan so it won't spread domino style to Russia and threaten his
> own regime. Putin is justifying his invasion with claims that he is rushing
> to the rescue of the country's oppressed Russian-speaking minority. However,
> it's clear that many members of this supposedly oppressed minority reject
> Putin's military interventions, since they are joining protests or taking to
> social media.
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> In a stabilization plan, the New York Times reported that Oleksandr
> Turchynov announced on March 2, the appointment of two billionaires as
> Oblast governors- Sergei Taruta in Donetsk and Ihor Kolomoysky in
> Dnipropetrovsk - and more were reportedly under consideration in the eastern
> Oblast regions. Steven Pifer, former American ambassador to Ukraine, said
> "They need people who have credibility in eastern Ukraine. The risk is this
> will be seen as business as usual by putting wealthy people in government.
> That has been part of the problem for the past 22 years."
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> Two US war ships are now in the Black Sea and if Ukraine requests, other
> Sixth fleet vessels could eventually form a naval blockade to chock off
> Russian war supplies to Crimea. This will be strengthened if Ukraine closes
> the Russian boarder or announces a No Fly zone, or simply cuts off fresh
> water supplies to Crimea for a day or two. Ukraine's envoy to the United
> Nations said "Kyiv would ask for international military support if Russia
> expanded its military action in his country." NATO troops are being deployed
> to Poland.
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> Russian Isolation and Collapse?
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> While the situation currently looks dark for Crimea, I think we are also
> seeing the early warning signals of Putin's downfall or even a breakup of
> the Russian Federation, as quickly and suddenly as we saw the fall of the
> Yanukovych regime.
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> Russia could turn out to be a victim of its own medicine. A Russian Duma
> bill allowing Russia to "absorb new territories from neighbouring states"
> by local referenda that override international agreements, could backfire
> on Russia and even lead to its self-destruction claims Moscow commentator
> Irek Murtazin in Kasparov.ru. Two can play that game. What will happen,
> Murtazin asks, "if tomorrow a similar law is adopted by China, Japan,
> Mongolia, Ukraine or Belarus? "If Tyva, for example, wants to combine with
> Mongolia? A couple of districts of Orenburg with Kazakhstan? Taganrog and
> Novorossiisk want to join Ukraine? And Smolensk and Pskov with Belarus? If
> any of those things happen, what will the Russian legislators of this new
> measure say? That it "contradicts international law" given what they have
> done themselves?"
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> US Secretary of State John Kerry warned that Russia could be ejected from
> the Group of Eight (G8). " Putin, was "not going to have a Sochi G8, he may
> not even remain in the G8 if this continues, he may find himself with: visa
> bans and asset freezes on Russian business. American business may pull back,
> there may be a further tumble of the rouble." The MICEX stock index fell 10
> percent and Gazprom was down more than 13 percent. "You just don't in the
> 21st century behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on
> completely trumped-up pretext," Mr Kerry told the CBS program Face the
> Nation.
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> There are reports about appeals to all liberation movements inside Russia
> to intensify their activities. Imagine, if "Muslim Maidans" break out
> simultaneously across the Russian Federation demanding freedom and
> self-determination, then Putin will have a very difficult strategic decision
> on his hands: Do I keep armed forces in Crimea or do I take them out to
> prevent the breakup of the Russian Federation? A call on Maidan said: "if a
> single drop of Muslim Tatar blood is spilt in Crimea, Red Square in Moscow
> will become true to its name. By starting a war in Crimea, Mr. Putin, you
> are starting a war against all Muslims in your own country."
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> What if the EU eventually decides to wean itself off Russian gas from
> Gazprom? This could very quickly bankrupt the Russian Federation, just as we
> saw in 1989 as the USSR collapsed. Last year, Germany's E.ON reached an
> agreement with Canada's Pieridae Energy involving the delivery of liquefied
> natural gas, or LNG. The deal is the German utility's first move to take
> advantage of huge amounts of inexpensive shale gas flooding the North
> American market. It said the deal is worth several billion euros per year
> for a period of 20 years, starting in 2020 supplying 5 million tons of LNG
> per year. The deliveries will start from an LNG terminal in Goldboro on
> Canada's east coast, in the first quarter of 2020.
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