putin does not care
he is crazy
only understands the working end of a rifle
On Mar 3, 2014, at 5:26 AM, [email protected] wrote:
> Very good analysis. Some of the economic backlash seems already visible.
>
>
> Quoting Walter Derzko <[email protected]>:
>
>> OPED The Russians are coming by Walter Derzko March 3 2014
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> After the much anticipated Russian troop invasion of Crimea, the entire
>> world has unilaterally reacted in support of Ukrainian sovereignty and
>> independence. The risk of eastern Oblast destabilization and invasion is
>> high too.
>>
>>
>>
>> Russia can start a war in Crimea, but they won't easily win it. There
>> are hopeful signs of eventual de-escalation. Invading Russian troops are
>> docile-so far no bloodshed or loss of life. Russian aggression is uniting
>> all Ukrainians. Mass pro-Ukrainian rallies were held to oppose the invasion
>> in Kharkiv, Odessa , Sumy, Mykolayiv, Kherson, Poltava, Kryvyi Rih and
>> Dnipropetrovsk. Ukraine has announced a mobilization of its military
>> reserves and patriotic Ukrainians are voluntarily enlisting. Tatars will not
>> recognize separatism, and will fight to stay in Ukraine. Putin's goal is to
>> discredit Maidan so it won't spread domino style to Russia and threaten his
>> own regime. Putin is justifying his invasion with claims that he is rushing
>> to the rescue of the country's oppressed Russian-speaking minority. However,
>> it's clear that many members of this supposedly oppressed minority reject
>> Putin's military interventions, since they are joining protests or taking to
>> social media.
>>
>>
>>
>> In a stabilization plan, the New York Times reported that Oleksandr
>> Turchynov announced on March 2, the appointment of two billionaires as
>> Oblast governors- Sergei Taruta in Donetsk and Ihor Kolomoysky in
>> Dnipropetrovsk - and more were reportedly under consideration in the eastern
>> Oblast regions. Steven Pifer, former American ambassador to Ukraine, said
>> "They need people who have credibility in eastern Ukraine. The risk is this
>> will be seen as business as usual by putting wealthy people in government.
>> That has been part of the problem for the past 22 years."
>>
>>
>>
>> Two US war ships are now in the Black Sea and if Ukraine requests, other
>> Sixth fleet vessels could eventually form a naval blockade to chock off
>> Russian war supplies to Crimea. This will be strengthened if Ukraine closes
>> the Russian boarder or announces a No Fly zone, or simply cuts off fresh
>> water supplies to Crimea for a day or two. Ukraine's envoy to the United
>> Nations said "Kyiv would ask for international military support if Russia
>> expanded its military action in his country." NATO troops are being deployed
>> to Poland.
>>
>>
>>
>> Russian Isolation and Collapse?
>>
>>
>>
>> While the situation currently looks dark for Crimea, I think we are also
>> seeing the early warning signals of Putin's downfall or even a breakup of
>> the Russian Federation, as quickly and suddenly as we saw the fall of the
>> Yanukovych regime.
>>
>>
>>
>> Russia could turn out to be a victim of its own medicine. A Russian Duma
>> bill allowing Russia to "absorb new territories from neighbouring states"
>> by local referenda that override international agreements, could backfire
>> on Russia and even lead to its self-destruction claims Moscow commentator
>> Irek Murtazin in Kasparov.ru. Two can play that game. What will happen,
>> Murtazin asks, "if tomorrow a similar law is adopted by China, Japan,
>> Mongolia, Ukraine or Belarus? "If Tyva, for example, wants to combine with
>> Mongolia? A couple of districts of Orenburg with Kazakhstan? Taganrog and
>> Novorossiisk want to join Ukraine? And Smolensk and Pskov with Belarus? If
>> any of those things happen, what will the Russian legislators of this new
>> measure say? That it "contradicts international law" given what they have
>> done themselves?"
>>
>>
>>
>> US Secretary of State John Kerry warned that Russia could be ejected from
>> the Group of Eight (G8). " Putin, was "not going to have a Sochi G8, he may
>> not even remain in the G8 if this continues, he may find himself with: visa
>> bans and asset freezes on Russian business. American business may pull back,
>> there may be a further tumble of the rouble." The MICEX stock index fell 10
>> percent and Gazprom was down more than 13 percent. "You just don't in the
>> 21st century behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on
>> completely trumped-up pretext," Mr Kerry told the CBS program Face the
>> Nation.
>>
>>
>>
>> There are reports about appeals to all liberation movements inside Russia
>> to intensify their activities. Imagine, if "Muslim Maidans" break out
>> simultaneously across the Russian Federation demanding freedom and
>> self-determination, then Putin will have a very difficult strategic decision
>> on his hands: Do I keep armed forces in Crimea or do I take them out to
>> prevent the breakup of the Russian Federation? A call on Maidan said: "if a
>> single drop of Muslim Tatar blood is spilt in Crimea, Red Square in Moscow
>> will become true to its name. By starting a war in Crimea, Mr. Putin, you
>> are starting a war against all Muslims in your own country."
>>
>>
>>
>> What if the EU eventually decides to wean itself off Russian gas from
>> Gazprom? This could very quickly bankrupt the Russian Federation, just as we
>> saw in 1989 as the USSR collapsed. Last year, Germany's E.ON reached an
>> agreement with Canada's Pieridae Energy involving the delivery of liquefied
>> natural gas, or LNG. The deal is the German utility's first move to take
>> advantage of huge amounts of inexpensive shale gas flooding the North
>> American market. It said the deal is worth several billion euros per year
>> for a period of 20 years, starting in 2020 supplying 5 million tons of LNG
>> per year. The deliveries will start from an LNG terminal in Goldboro on
>> Canada's east coast, in the first quarter of 2020.
>>
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