OPED The Russians are coming by Walter Derzko March 3 2014

From: Walter Derzko ([email protected])
Date: Mon Mar 03 2014 - 08:00:26 EST


OPED The Russians are coming by Walter Derzko March 3 2014

 

 

After the much anticipated Russian troop invasion of Crimea, the entire
world has unilaterally reacted in support of Ukrainian sovereignty and
independence. The risk of eastern Oblast destabilization and invasion is
high too.

 

Russia can start a war in Crimea, but they won't easily win it. There
are hopeful signs of eventual de-escalation. Invading Russian troops are
docile-so far no bloodshed or loss of life. Russian aggression is uniting
all Ukrainians. Mass pro-Ukrainian rallies were held to oppose the invasion
in Kharkiv, Odessa , Sumy, Mykolayiv, Kherson, Poltava, Kryvyi Rih and
Dnipropetrovsk. Ukraine has announced a mobilization of its military
reserves and patriotic Ukrainians are voluntarily enlisting. Tatars will not
recognize separatism, and will fight to stay in Ukraine. Putin's goal is to
discredit Maidan so it won't spread domino style to Russia and threaten his
own regime. Putin is justifying his invasion with claims that he is rushing
to the rescue of the country's oppressed Russian-speaking minority. However,
it's clear that many members of this supposedly oppressed minority reject
Putin's military interventions, since they are joining protests or taking to
social media.

 

In a stabilization plan, the New York Times reported that Oleksandr
Turchynov announced on March 2, the appointment of two billionaires as
Oblast governors- Sergei Taruta in Donetsk and Ihor Kolomoysky in
Dnipropetrovsk - and more were reportedly under consideration in the eastern
Oblast regions. Steven Pifer, former American ambassador to Ukraine, said
"They need people who have credibility in eastern Ukraine. The risk is this
will be seen as business as usual by putting wealthy people in government.
That has been part of the problem for the past 22 years."

 

Two US war ships are now in the Black Sea and if Ukraine requests, other
Sixth fleet vessels could eventually form a naval blockade to chock off
Russian war supplies to Crimea. This will be strengthened if Ukraine closes
the Russian boarder or announces a No Fly zone, or simply cuts off fresh
water supplies to Crimea for a day or two. Ukraine's envoy to the United
Nations said "Kyiv would ask for international military support if Russia
expanded its military action in his country." NATO troops are being deployed
to Poland.

 

Russian Isolation and Collapse?

 

While the situation currently looks dark for Crimea, I think we are also
seeing the early warning signals of Putin's downfall or even a breakup of
the Russian Federation, as quickly and suddenly as we saw the fall of the
Yanukovych regime.

 

Russia could turn out to be a victim of its own medicine. A Russian Duma
bill allowing Russia to "absorb new territories from neighbouring states"
by local referenda that override international agreements, could backfire
on Russia and even lead to its self-destruction claims Moscow commentator
Irek Murtazin in Kasparov.ru. Two can play that game. What will happen,
Murtazin asks, "if tomorrow a similar law is adopted by China, Japan,
Mongolia, Ukraine or Belarus? "If Tyva, for example, wants to combine with
Mongolia? A couple of districts of Orenburg with Kazakhstan? Taganrog and
Novorossiisk want to join Ukraine? And Smolensk and Pskov with Belarus? If
any of those things happen, what will the Russian legislators of this new
measure say? That it "contradicts international law" given what they have
done themselves?"

 

US Secretary of State John Kerry warned that Russia could be ejected from
the Group of Eight (G8). " Putin, was "not going to have a Sochi G8, he may
not even remain in the G8 if this continues, he may find himself with: visa
bans and asset freezes on Russian business. American business may pull back,
there may be a further tumble of the rouble." The MICEX stock index fell 10
percent and Gazprom was down more than 13 percent. "You just don't in the
21st century behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on
completely trumped-up pretext," Mr Kerry told the CBS program Face the
Nation.

 

There are reports about appeals to all liberation movements inside Russia
to intensify their activities. Imagine, if "Muslim Maidans" break out
simultaneously across the Russian Federation demanding freedom and
self-determination, then Putin will have a very difficult strategic decision
on his hands: Do I keep armed forces in Crimea or do I take them out to
prevent the breakup of the Russian Federation? A call on Maidan said: "if a
single drop of Muslim Tatar blood is spilt in Crimea, Red Square in Moscow
will become true to its name. By starting a war in Crimea, Mr. Putin, you
are starting a war against all Muslims in your own country."

 

What if the EU eventually decides to wean itself off Russian gas from
Gazprom? This could very quickly bankrupt the Russian Federation, just as we
saw in 1989 as the USSR collapsed. Last year, Germany's E.ON reached an
agreement with Canada's Pieridae Energy involving the delivery of liquefied
natural gas, or LNG. The deal is the German utility's first move to take
advantage of huge amounts of inexpensive shale gas flooding the North
American market. It said the deal is worth several billion euros per year
for a period of 20 years, starting in 2020 supplying 5 million tons of LNG
per year. The deliveries will start from an LNG terminal in Goldboro on
Canada's east coast, in the first quarter of 2020.

 

 

 



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