from your lips to god's ears
On Mar 29, 2014, at 3:34 AM, [email protected] wrote:
>
>
> What did Lukashenko say?
>
> Cracks in the Eurasian union?
>
> Self interest of the leaders of Kazakhstan & Belarus will kill
> the Eurasian Union. :)
>
> [email protected] wrote:
>>
>> I doubt if he will invade. We'll know the new deadlines when we are
>> told the timeline for the Kerry-Lavrov meeting they both agreed to.
>> The oil is obviously a factor, as is the Syrian issue. But I still
>> think that Putin's FSB has told him some bad news about what the
>> Ukrainian army and armed populace can do. He has weighed this and
>> decided that the Tymoshenko route is safer. (Or some other tactic).
>> Lukashenko had some interesting stuff to say on Shuster tonight, both
>> about Putin and Yanukovich.
>>
>> Quoting [email protected]:
>>>
>>> A good chunk of Putin's battle hardened troops are in Crimea,
>>> the troops on the eastern border are conscripts. The tank division
>>> north of Chernihiv are a professional unit, though not battle
>>> hardened -- there has been little chance for experiencing a
>>> tank battle. The Caucuses have been anti-guerilla warfare.
>>> Yeltsin lost close to 1000 armoured vehicles in the first war.
>>>
>>> The professional tank division would be used to drive as
>>> fast as it can into Kyiv to kill the government.
>>>
>>> What could also happen is that things start occuring in
>>> Chechnya/Igushetia/Dagestan because those battle-hardened troops
>>> are now in Crimea. Putin is vulnerable.
>>>
>>> The proportion of professional troops as a percentage
>>> is much smaller than Ukraine -- problem is that Russia
>>> has a much greater force.
>>>
>>> I think Putin is more concerned about the price of oil and
>>> how that may destroy his economy.
>>>
>>> The Putin call today to Obama may have been a last minute check
>>> to see if the Yanks would intervene militarily or not. Obama the
>>> great poker player he is not, would have laid all his cards on
>>> the table.
>>>
>>> So my guess is Putin will invade, unless Obama is a better poker
>>> player than I thought. I am not jholding my breath.
>>>
>>> [email protected] wrote:
>>>>
>>>> And is now asking Obama to help him out of his mess... hoping to still
>>>> get something.
>>>>
>>>> Remember that a few weeks ago someone (I forget the details
>>>> unfortunately) pointed out that Russia only has some 25,000 totally
>>>> reliable troops to assault Ukraine with. For that to work everything
>>>> had to go like clockwork: Ukraine had to be disorganized and in chaos,
>>>> the "titushky" provocateurs had to deliver, and the world remain
>>>> hapless and silent... Nothing has worked. The "threat" at Ukraine's
>>>> border is hollow. He may have the numbers (up to 100,000) but most of
>>>> these will not "fight the good fight". If he tries anything he'll wind
>>>> up with another Konotop (1659).
>>>>
>>>> The danger now is not to draw defeat from the jaws of victory.
>>>>
>>>> I feel like the kid who said that famous sentence about the Emperor.
>>>> I hope I'm not doing what Merkel opined Putin was....
>>>>
>>>
>>
>
>
>
> InfoUkes Inc. Gerald William Kokodyniak
> Suite 185, 3044 Bloor Street West Webmaster InfoUkes Inc.
> Etobicoke, Ontario [email protected]
> Canada M8X 2Y8 http://www.infoukes.com/
>
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