I doubt it too. It would be suicide. The question now becomes, in my
opinion, should the US just go ahead and flood the market with oil and
watch Putin drown? On the one hand, it would get rid of this Napoleonic
irritant once in for all, but it would also lead to the fragmentation of
Russia - which the US may not exactly be interested in.
So we are left with a regional dictator, wounded, and saving face. Our
job, as Ukrainians, in my opinion, is to go full throttle at this Great
Russian Chauvanism that glues the bastards. This means going after their
corrupt church, their white-wash of their own history, and propping up the
very weak Russian opposition who still believe in respect for
individualism. We need to keep purging our own institutions, but at the
same time assault theirs. Big task. But keep in mind, all of a sudden,
the whole world is interested in learning more about Ukrainian / Russian
relations. Oncemore, the Russians are now as a result of this Crimean
folly, commonly seen as liars and people who completely distort reality.
Ukrainians can take advantage of the situation by making out narative of
history come out of the shadows and start to be heard and understood like
no time before. We are in unique times. The opportunity is there,
finally, to have the truth be told as Shevchenko wanted.
The more and more I studied Russian history, the more I became convinced
that such a history built on complete lies and fabrication cannot sustain
itself. Sooner or later, it will collapse under the weight of the lies it
has perpetuated for hundred and hundreds of years. We just need to keep
repeating, over and over: Russian civiliazation is essentially mongol, not
European. They worship and admire authoritarian rule - we do not. The
people of Ukraine are the natural dicendents of Kyivan-Rus society,
Russians are not. Rinse and repeat.
Slava Ykpaini and good night
On Fri, Mar 28, 2014 at 8:52 PM, <[email protected]> wrote:
> I doubt if he will invade. We'll know the new deadlines when we are told
> the timeline for the Kerry-Lavrov meeting they both agreed to. The oil is
> obviously a factor, as is the Syrian issue. But I still think that Putin's
> FSB has told him some bad news about what the Ukrainian army and armed
> populace can do. He has weighed this and decided that the Tymoshenko route
> is safer. (Or some other tactic). Lukashenko had some interesting stuff to
> say on Shuster tonight, both about Putin and Yanukovich.
>
>
>
> Quoting [email protected]:
>
>
>>
>> A good chunk of Putin's battle hardened troops are in Crimea,
>> the troops on the eastern border are conscripts. The tank division
>> north of Chernihiv are a professional unit, though not battle
>> hardened -- there has been little chance for experiencing a
>> tank battle. The Caucuses have been anti-guerilla warfare.
>> Yeltsin lost close to 1000 armoured vehicles in the first war.
>>
>> The professional tank division would be used to drive as
>> fast as it can into Kyiv to kill the government.
>>
>> What could also happen is that things start occuring in
>> Chechnya/Igushetia/Dagestan because those battle-hardened troops
>> are now in Crimea. Putin is vulnerable.
>>
>> The proportion of professional troops as a percentage
>> is much smaller than Ukraine -- problem is that Russia
>> has a much greater force.
>>
>> I think Putin is more concerned about the price of oil and
>> how that may destroy his economy.
>>
>> The Putin call today to Obama may have been a last minute check
>> to see if the Yanks would intervene militarily or not. Obama the
>> great poker player he is not, would have laid all his cards on
>> the table.
>>
>> So my guess is Putin will invade, unless Obama is a better poker
>> player than I thought. I am not jholding my breath.
>>
>>
>> [email protected] wrote:
>>
>>>
>>> And is now asking Obama to help him out of his mess... hoping to still
>>> get something.
>>>
>>> Remember that a few weeks ago someone (I forget the details
>>> unfortunately) pointed out that Russia only has some 25,000 totally
>>> reliable troops to assault Ukraine with. For that to work everything
>>> had to go like clockwork: Ukraine had to be disorganized and in chaos,
>>> the "titushky" provocateurs had to deliver, and the world remain
>>> hapless and silent... Nothing has worked. The "threat" at Ukraine's
>>> border is hollow. He may have the numbers (up to 100,000) but most of
>>> these will not "fight the good fight". If he tries anything he'll wind
>>> up with another Konotop (1659).
>>>
>>> The danger now is not to draw defeat from the jaws of victory.
>>>
>>> I feel like the kid who said that famous sentence about the Emperor.
>>> I hope I'm not doing what Merkel opined Putin was....
>>>
>>>
>>
>> --
>> InfoUkes Inc. Gerald William Kokodyniak
>> Suite 185, 3044 Bloor Street West Webmaster InfoUkes Inc.
>> Etobicoke, Ontario [email protected]
>> Canada M8X 2Y8 http://www.infoukes.com/
>>
>>
>>
>>
>
>
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