too bad ukraine cannot join NATO in time
On Mar 28, 2014, at 5:37 PM, [email protected] wrote:
>
>
> A good chunk of Putin's battle hardened troops are in Crimea,
> the troops on the eastern border are conscripts. The tank division
> north of Chernihiv are a professional unit, though not battle
> hardened -- there has been little chance for experiencing a
> tank battle. The Caucuses have been anti-guerilla warfare.
> Yeltsin lost close to 1000 armoured vehicles in the first war.
>
> The professional tank division would be used to drive as
> fast as it can into Kyiv to kill the government.
>
> What could also happen is that things start occuring in
> Chechnya/Igushetia/Dagestan because those battle-hardened troops
> are now in Crimea. Putin is vulnerable.
>
> The proportion of professional troops as a percentage
> is much smaller than Ukraine -- problem is that Russia
> has a much greater force.
>
> I think Putin is more concerned about the price of oil and
> how that may destroy his economy.
>
> The Putin call today to Obama may have been a last minute check
> to see if the Yanks would intervene militarily or not. Obama the
> great poker player he is not, would have laid all his cards on
> the table.
>
> So my guess is Putin will invade, unless Obama is a better poker
> player than I thought. I am not jholding my breath.
>
>
> [email protected] wrote:
>>
>> And is now asking Obama to help him out of his mess... hoping to still
>> get something.
>>
>> Remember that a few weeks ago someone (I forget the details
>> unfortunately) pointed out that Russia only has some 25,000 totally
>> reliable troops to assault Ukraine with. For that to work everything
>> had to go like clockwork: Ukraine had to be disorganized and in chaos,
>> the "titushky" provocateurs had to deliver, and the world remain
>> hapless and silent... Nothing has worked. The "threat" at Ukraine's
>> border is hollow. He may have the numbers (up to 100,000) but most of
>> these will not "fight the good fight". If he tries anything he'll wind
>> up with another Konotop (1659).
>>
>> The danger now is not to draw defeat from the jaws of victory.
>>
>> I feel like the kid who said that famous sentence about the Emperor.
>> I hope I'm not doing what Merkel opined Putin was....
>>
>
>
> --
> InfoUkes Inc. Gerald William Kokodyniak
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