A good chunk of Putin's battle hardened troops are in Crimea,
the troops on the eastern border are conscripts. The tank division
north of Chernihiv are a professional unit, though not battle
hardened -- there has been little chance for experiencing a
tank battle. The Caucuses have been anti-guerilla warfare.
Yeltsin lost close to 1000 armoured vehicles in the first war.
The professional tank division would be used to drive as
fast as it can into Kyiv to kill the government.
What could also happen is that things start occuring in
Chechnya/Igushetia/Dagestan because those battle-hardened troops
are now in Crimea. Putin is vulnerable.
The proportion of professional troops as a percentage
is much smaller than Ukraine -- problem is that Russia
has a much greater force.
I think Putin is more concerned about the price of oil and
how that may destroy his economy.
The Putin call today to Obama may have been a last minute check
to see if the Yanks would intervene militarily or not. Obama the
great poker player he is not, would have laid all his cards on
the table.
So my guess is Putin will invade, unless Obama is a better poker
player than I thought. I am not jholding my breath.
[email protected] wrote:
>
> And is now asking Obama to help him out of his mess... hoping to still
> get something.
>
> Remember that a few weeks ago someone (I forget the details
> unfortunately) pointed out that Russia only has some 25,000 totally
> reliable troops to assault Ukraine with. For that to work everything
> had to go like clockwork: Ukraine had to be disorganized and in chaos,
> the "titushky" provocateurs had to deliver, and the world remain
> hapless and silent... Nothing has worked. The "threat" at Ukraine's
> border is hollow. He may have the numbers (up to 100,000) but most of
> these will not "fight the good fight". If he tries anything he'll wind
> up with another Konotop (1659).
>
> The danger now is not to draw defeat from the jaws of victory.
>
> I feel like the kid who said that famous sentence about the Emperor.
> I hope I'm not doing what Merkel opined Putin was....
>
--
InfoUkes Inc. Gerald William Kokodyniak
Suite 185, 3044 Bloor Street West Webmaster InfoUkes Inc.
Etobicoke, Ontario [email protected]
Canada M8X 2Y8 http://www.infoukes.com/
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