always $$ for israel tho' from the u.s. tax payer
On Mar 12, 2014, at 4:34 PM, "Olena Boyko" <[email protected]> wrote:
> Sorry, Michael. I forgot to answer your question.
>
> Thje world, as is nature, space, humans, is always in a state of flux. A safe place is very relative. For Russia, a win-win:; for the US, who cares as our Congress has just shown;, for the EU...gas and laundered money have priority; for the Muslim world...not a peep as Tatars are inconsequential.
>
> And history marches on.
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Michael Casale
> To: [email protected]
> Sent: Wednesday, March 12, 2014 5:20 PM
> Subject: [politics] The Law of Unexpected Consequences and other matters
>
> I have a British friend who held a very high position with the British national administration. He was always very fond of telling me that when politicians (and he moved in high places) made laws or carried out new policies, they were inevitably surprised by the Law of Unexpected Consequences (LUC) even though they thought they had covered every eventuality.
>
> I can’t help but observe that despite having a myriad of advisors (well paid??), covert eavesdropping and other intelligence assets, etc., not to mention the odd clairvoyant, neither the Americans or Europeans saw that the Russians both politically and militarily recognised that here at long last from their perspective was a once in a lifetime opportunity for annexing the Crimea (which it always wanted to do) given the scenario following the overthrow of Yanukovych. I imagine that President Putin must have thought it was his birthday. But ignoring whether his advisors are well paid or not, or maybe just lurkers on this discussion group, perhaps everyone needs to recognise what a can of worms Putin has opened up.
>
> So this is just a few problems which will come further down the line, but in no particular order.
>
> 1. Gibraltar: The Spanish have been effectively blockading it for quite a while now. If I was Spanish, I might just be thinking that Russia taking over the Crimea provided an excellent template for the Spanish armed forces to march into an essentially undefended Gibraltar. It’s unlikely that the UK will retaliate by nuking Madrid – is it?
> 2. Guantanamo: For Gibraltar read Guantanamo and for Spain read Cuba. This might turn out to be very nasty if Russia decides to re-establish itself as a fraternal ally of the Castro brothers.
> 3. Israel: West Bank settlers? Well the so called memorandum on Ukraine which neither the US or the other signatories honoured in the end will make the Israelis insist that they can only rely on themselves – with Ukraine coming to pretty much the same conclusion. I would suggest that it’s goodbye to regional peace with the Russians still supporting Assad, the Iranians and other pretty dodgy characters/regimes. And if you think that this suits the Russians I would guess that Russia is making the wrong decision since extremists in the area regard Russia as just another bunch of atheists to be dealt with in due course after they have finished with Israel, the Jews, Christians (all denominations and ethnicities), the wrong sort of Muslims, women wearing makeup, gays, and any man or woman not wearing a beard.
> 4. Countries surrounding Russia: Depends who they are. Western countries such as Poland will reverse any military cuts that were planned and, despite denials, you can be sure that the anti-ballistic missile defence that was downgraded by Obama will make a reappearance. The mineral rich ‘stans’ will also quietly increase their military stance. Never mind that they were once part of the USSR, they will recognise what Russia has done in the Crimea could be done to them. Financially rich, they might decide that Saudi Arabia is a good template and buy lots of Western weaponry using mercenary manpower. It’s worked for the Saudis, why not for the ‘stans? Whatever scenario plays out, and much of it seems almost medieval, I really don’t see Russia coming out of it any better than anyone else.
>
> I am sure everyone could add to the above list. I leave with this simple thought. Do you think that the world is a safer place or less safe place since Russia arrived in the Crimea?
>
> Michael Casale
>
>
>
> --
> Michael Casale
> Tel: +44 (0)20 8959 8655
> Fax: +44 (0)872 110 8655
> e-mail: [email protected]
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