WRT Michael's question -- I think the world hs definitely moved away
from the rule of law and thus has become less safe.
I agree with your premise of unintended consequences.
I think any nation that has nukes and was considering giving them
up would say, that is insane because treaties are just words on a
page -- When push came to shove, The Memorandum signees just huffed
and puffed and wagged their fingers. So immediately that means
Iran & North Korea, potentially down the line countries like
Pakistan & India. This single invasion and Putin's intransigence
(sp?) on the invasion has sealed the fate of continued nuclear
proliferation.
Michael is correct, the Spanish have resorted back to the old age
practise of delaying border crossings into Gibraltar. They had
started up again just recently with several hour delays.
Guantanamo bay is just a military base and not even a community.
The cubans will not renew it unless there is a regime change and/or
their weakening of support from Venezuela might drive them
financially to renew the base with the Americans or even the
Chinese.
Isreali's are correct, they probably can only rely on themselves
because the USA has made itself extremely vulnerable with their
huge National deficits & National debts. The yearly deficit a year
back was 3X the entire/total Canadian Federal debt (not deficit).
Thus American friendship varies depending who is in power and how
compromised financially they are.
In reference to the stan republics -- oh definitely they are now
worried, and that included Kazakhstan -- I think President Nazarbaev
cancelled a trip to Moscow and spent the day instead talking with
Obama & Merkel. He must be getting cold feet especially with the
Racists overtones that has Russia in a frenzy. So will they now
delay signing the Eurasian Union choosing to stay more neutral or
maybe create an Asian union of the stan republics?
Lukashenko is Lukashenko and is blind to the entire incident and
is probably salivating because he would like Ukraine to be crushed --
he wants the Maidan contagion destroyed for his own safety.
I will add one more -- Russia in essence is the same totalitarian
regime that loves Authoritarian strongman leaders. True and Not
True. The people over 40 are probably locked into that Russian
Imperialist / Soviet Imperialist mindset. (of course it is not
fair to paint everybody with the same brush). It is the 20-something
and 30-something who are internet savvy have broken away from that
mold -- much in the same way the Russian speaking / ethnic Russians
in eastern Ukraine who now think similarly to their fellow countrymen
in the west of the country.
They want a better life, one that is based on lack of corruption,
and not being afraid of being arrested for thinking outside the
box and/or pre-approved state approved modes of thinking. They are
tired of seeing "connected people" of little ability but are connected
to Putin much like the "Family" was connected to Yanukovych.
The unattended consequence is that these people see Ukraine had
broken it's bonds (know better than to rely on Russian state media
for the news) thru people power -- believe me Putin is scared
shitless by this prospect and thus in typical traditional Russian
mindset is to squeeze harder and stomp harder on dissent. In some
ways it will lead to a stronger pushback (it may take 5, 10 or 20 years)
but when it happens it will not be pretty. China is a very similar
powderkeg and has several hundred incidents a year where 10,000+
people riot over something. It will also fail in a not very
pretty way.
The danger is that Russia is a nuclear state and would Putin or
his successors then rely on nukes to get their way?
So to repeat, I think what has happened in Ukraine is not the
cause of cascading consequences but is just a link on a chain
of events which are tearing down the stability of the last 60
years. Thus we are living in a much more dangerous world.
Olena Boyko wrote:
>
> Sorry, Michael. I forgot to answer your question.
>
> Thje world, as is nature, space, humans, is always in a state of flux.
> A safe place is very relative. For Russia, a win-win:; for the US, who
> cares as our Congress has just shown;, for the EU...gas and laundered
> money have priority; for the Muslim world...not a peep as Tatars are
> inconsequential.
>
> And history marches on.
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Michael Casale
> To: [email protected]
> Sent: Wednesday, March 12, 2014 5:20 PM
> Subject: [politics] The Law of Unexpected Consequences and other
> matters
>
>
> I have a British friend who held a very high position with the British
> national administration. He was always very fond of telling me that
> when politicians (and he moved in high places) made laws or carried out
> new policies, they were inevitably surprised by the Law of Unexpected
> Consequences (LUC) even though they thought they had covered every
> eventuality.
>
> I can't help but observe that despite having a myriad of advisors
> (well paid??), covert eavesdropping and other intelligence assets, etc.,
> not to mention the odd clairvoyant, neither the Americans or Europeans
> saw that the Russians both politically and militarily recognised that
> here at long last from their perspective was a once in a lifetime
> opportunity for annexing the Crimea (which it always wanted to do) given
> the scenario following the overthrow of Yanukovych. I imagine that
> President Putin must have thought it was his birthday. But ignoring
> whether his advisors are well paid or not, or maybe just lurkers on this
> discussion group, perhaps everyone needs to recognise what a can of
> worms Putin has opened up.
>
> So this is just a few problems which will come further down the line,
> but in no particular order.
>
> 1. Gibraltar: The Spanish have been effectively blockading it =
> for quite a while now. If I was Spanish, I might just be thinking that =
> Russia taking over the Crimea provided an excellent template for the =
> Spanish armed forces to march into an essentially undefended Gibraltar. =
> It's unlikely that the UK will retaliate by nuking Madrid - is it?
>
> 2. Guantanamo: For Gibraltar read Guantanamo and for Spain read =
> Cuba. This might turn out to be very nasty if Russia decides to =
> re-establish itself as a fraternal ally of the Castro brothers.
>
> 3. Israel: West Bank settlers? Well the so called memorandum =
> on Ukraine which neither the US or the other signatories honoured in the =
> end will make the Israelis insist that they can only rely on themselves =
> - with Ukraine coming to pretty much the same conclusion. I would =
> suggest that it's goodbye to regional peace with the Russians still =
> supporting Assad, the Iranians and other pretty dodgy =
> characters/regimes. And if you think that this suits the Russians I =
> would guess that Russia is making the wrong decision since extremists in =
> the area regard Russia as just another bunch of atheists to be dealt =
> with in due course after they have finished with Israel, the Jews, =
> Christians (all denominations and ethnicities), the wrong sort of =
> Muslims, women wearing makeup, gays, and any man or woman not wearing a =
> beard.
>
> 4. Countries surrounding Russia: Depends who they are. Western =
> countries such as Poland will reverse any military cuts that were =
> planned and, despite denials, you can be sure that the anti-ballistic =
> missile defence that was downgraded by Obama will make a reappearance. =
> The mineral rich 'stans' will also quietly increase their military =
> stance. Never mind that they were once part of the USSR, they will =
> recognise what Russia has done in the Crimea could be done to them. =
> Financially rich, they might decide that Saudi Arabia is a good template =
> and buy lots of Western weaponry using mercenary manpower. It's worked =
> for the Saudis, why not for the 'stans? Whatever scenario plays out, =
> and much of it seems almost medieval, I really don't see Russia coming =
> out of it any better than anyone else.
>
> =20
>
> I am sure everyone could add to the above list. I leave with this =
> simple thought. Do you think that the world is a safer place or less =
> safe place since Russia arrived in the Crimea?
>
> =20
>
> Michael Casale
>
> =20
>
> =20
>
> =20
>
> --=20
>
> Michael Casale
>
> Tel: +44 (0)20 8959 8655
>
> Fax: +44 (0)872 110 8655
>
> e-mail: [email protected]
>
> =20
>
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> <DIV><FONT size=3D2 face=3DArial>Sorry, Michael. I forgot to =
> answer your=20
> question.</FONT></DIV>
> <DIV><FONT size=3D2 face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
> <DIV><FONT size=3D2 face=3DArial>Thje world, as is nature, space, =
> humans, is always=20
> in a state of flux. A safe place is very relative. For =
> Russia, a=20
> win-win:; for the US, who cares as our Congress has just shown;, for the =
>
> EU...gas and laundered money have priority; for the Muslim =
> world...not a=20
> peep as Tatars are inconsequential.</FONT></DIV>
> <DIV><FONT size=3D2 face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
> <DIV><FONT size=3D2 face=3DArial>And history marches on.</FONT></DIV>
> <BLOCKQUOTE=20
> style=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; =
> PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"=20
> dir=3Dltr>
> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
> <DIV=20
> style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial; BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: =
> black"><B>From:</B>=20
> <A title=[email protected] href=3D"mailto:[email protected]">Michael =
> Casale</A> </DIV>
> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
> title=[email protected]=20
> href=3D"mailto:[email protected]">[email protected]</A> </DIV>
> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, March 12, 2014 =
> 5:20=20
> PM</DIV>
> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [politics] The Law of =
> Unexpected=20
> Consequences and other matters</DIV>
> <DIV><BR></DIV>
> <DIV class=3DWordSection1>
> <P class=3DMsoNormal>I have a British friend who held a very high =
> position with=20
> the British national administration. He was always very fond of =
> telling=20
> me that when politicians (and he moved in high places) made laws or =
> carried=20
> out new policies, they were inevitably surprised by the Law of =
> Unexpected=20
> Consequences (LUC) even though they thought they had covered =
> every=20
> eventuality. <o:p></o:p></P>
> <P class=3DMsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
> <P class=3DMsoNormal>I can=92t help but observe that despite having a =
> myriad of=20
> advisors (well paid??), covert eavesdropping and other intelligence =
> assets,=20
> etc., not to mention the odd clairvoyant, neither the Americans or =
> Europeans=20
> saw that the Russians both politically and militarily recognised that =
> here at=20
> long last from their perspective was a once in a lifetime opportunity =
> for=20
> annexing the Crimea (which it always wanted to do) given the scenario=20
> following the overthrow of Yanukovych. I imagine that President =
> Putin=20
> must have thought it was his birthday. But ignoring whether his =
> advisors=20
> are well paid or not, or maybe just lurkers on this discussion group, =
> perhaps=20
> everyone needs to recognise what a can of worms Putin has opened=20
> up.<o:p></o:p></P>
> <P class=3DMsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
> <P class=3DMsoNormal>So this is just a few problems which will =
> come=20
> further down the line, but in no particular order.<o:p></o:p></P>
> <P class=3DMsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
> <P style=3D"TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1"=20
> class=3DMsoListParagraph><![if !supportLists]><SPAN=20
> style=3D"mso-list: Ignore">1.<SPAN=20
> style=3D"FONT: 7pt 'Times New =
> Roman'"> =20
> </SPAN></SPAN><![endif]> Gibraltar: The Spanish have been =
> effectively=20
> blockading it for quite a while now. If I was Spanish, I might =
> just be=20
> thinking that Russia taking over the Crimea provided an excellent =
> template for=20
> the Spanish armed forces to march into an essentially undefended=20
> Gibraltar. It=92s unlikely that the UK will retaliate by nuking =
> Madrid =96=20
> is it?<o:p></o:p></P>
> <P style=3D"TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1"=20
> class=3DMsoListParagraph><![if !supportLists]><SPAN=20
> style=3D"mso-list: Ignore">2.<SPAN=20
> style=3D"FONT: 7pt 'Times New =
> Roman'"> =20
> </SPAN></SPAN><![endif]>Guantanamo: For Gibraltar read =
> Guantanamo and=20
> for Spain read Cuba. This might turn out to be very nasty if =
> Russia=20
> decides to re-establish itself as a fraternal ally of the Castro=20
> brothers.<o:p></o:p></P>
> <P style=3D"TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1"=20
> class=3DMsoListParagraph><![if !supportLists]><SPAN=20
> style=3D"mso-list: Ignore">3.<SPAN=20
> style=3D"FONT: 7pt 'Times New =
> Roman'"> =20
> </SPAN></SPAN><![endif]>Israel: West Bank settlers? Well =
> the so=20
> called memorandum on Ukraine which neither the US or the other =
> signatories=20
> honoured in the end will make the Israelis insist that they can only =
> rely on=20
> themselves =96 with Ukraine coming to pretty much the same =
> conclusion. I=20
> would suggest that it=92s goodbye to regional peace with the Russians =
> still=20
> supporting Assad, the Iranians and other pretty dodgy=20
> characters/regimes. And if you think that this suits the =
> Russians I=20
> would guess that Russia is making the wrong decision since extremists =
> in the=20
> area regard Russia as just another bunch of atheists to be dealt with =
> in due=20
> course after they have finished with Israel, the Jews, =
> Christians (all=20
> denominations and ethnicities), the wrong sort of Muslims, women =
> wearing=20
> makeup, gays, and any man or woman not wearing a beard.<o:p></o:p></P>
> <P style=3D"TEXT-INDENT: -18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1"=20
> class=3DMsoListParagraph><![if !supportLists]><SPAN=20
> style=3D"mso-list: Ignore">4.<SPAN=20
> style=3D"FONT: 7pt 'Times New =
> Roman'"> =20
> </SPAN></SPAN><![endif]>Countries surrounding Russia: Depends =
> who they=20
> are. Western countries such as Poland will reverse any military =
> cuts=20
> that were planned and, despite denials, you can be sure that the=20
> anti-ballistic missile defence that was downgraded by Obama will make =
> a=20
> reappearance. The mineral rich =91stans=92 will also quietly =
> increase their=20
> military stance. Never mind that they were once part of the =
> USSR, they=20
> will recognise what Russia has done in the Crimea could be done to =
> them. =20
> Financially rich, they might decide that Saudi Arabia is a good =
> template and=20
> buy lots of Western weaponry using mercenary manpower. It=92s worked =
> for the=20
> Saudis, why not for the =91stans? Whatever scenario plays out, =
> and much of=20
> it seems almost medieval, I really don=92t see Russia coming out of it =
> any=20
> better than anyone else.<o:p></o:p></P>
> <P class=3DMsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
> <P class=3DMsoNormal>I am sure everyone could add to the above =
> list. I=20
> leave with this simple thought. Do you think that the world is a =
> safer=20
> place or less safe place since Russia arrived in the =
> Crimea?<o:p></o:p></P>
> <P class=3DMsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
> <P class=3DMsoNormal>Michael Casale<o:p></o:p></P>
> <P class=3DMsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
> <P class=3DMsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
> <P class=3DMsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P>
> <P class=3DMsoNormal>-- <o:p></o:p></P>
> <P class=3DMsoNormal>Michael Casale<o:p></o:p></P>
> <P class=3DMsoNormal>Tel: +44 (0)20 8959 8655<o:p></o:p></P>
> <P class=3DMsoNormal>Fax: +44 (0)872 110 8655<o:p></o:p></P>
> <P class=3DMsoNormal>e-mail: [email protected]<o:p></o:p></P>
> <P =
> class=3DMsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></P></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
>
> ------=_NextPart_000_00A5_01CF3E2A.0FD26930--
>
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