At first glance it would appear: very. But is it really?
It was of course very solid to start with, due to the Fleet and
connected army units.
But the fact that he had to rely on a coup d'etat to put Aksyonov
in power (4% support in the population , remember) shows the others
would not easily have gone along. On top of that the parliament did
what it did at gun point.
And his current position while improved is not yet quite foolproof.
It's not just the international reaction.
He has not managed to gain control of the Ukrainian military. They are
blockaded. But they are some of the best units in the Ukrainian army,
and the "titushky" on the streets along with those imported from
Russia (same old same old) are no match for them. This is well known.
So he has had to bring in more soldiers. And more "citizens" (on the
basis of events in Luhansk and Donetsk I am convinced that a large
part of the Simferopol "crowds" today are in the same category> I'm
waiting for the same actress to reappear (:=)). The Tatars have not
cracked at all either.
His attempt to block off communications from Ukraine is also telling.
As is the refusal to allow OSCE observers and the manhandling of
journalists. No one in a strong and unshakeable position would bother
with this.
And the hurried "referendum" is perhaps the best indicator. The best
he has going for a strong but not exactly overwhelmingly strong
position is terrific propaganda.
What Ukraine seems to need is a good strategist to take advantage of
this situation.
We may yet be in for some surprises.
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b30 : Tue Apr 01 2014 - 00:57:55 EST