How about (4) Putin continues. He already has a foothold in the
Kherson. Why stop? The more he grabs the more he "negotiates" later...
It's basically up to Ukraine with a bit from the West, but mostly
Ukraine. And Ukraine starts with a devastated position. Problematic
leadership and misfunctioning state apparatus....
Quoting William Zuzak <[email protected]>:
> Dear Infoukes:
>
>
>
> CRIMEA: Ukraine, Russian Federation or Autonomous Republic?
>
>
>
> Despite Vladimir Putin's false claims that the Russian language is
> threatened in Crimea, Myron Petriw has demonstrated that it is
> Ukrainian-language speakers that are discriminated against in Crimea:
>
> http://yaroslawsrevenge.authorsxpress.com/2013/02/09/back-to-the-ussr-%E2%80
> %93-the-tools-of-genocide-remain-unchanged/
>
> Law in a Linguistic Battlefield: Ukrainian vs. Russian
> <http://www.willzuzak.ca/tp/ukrainophobia/bowring20120902LanguageLaw.html>
> Language and Law, 02Sep2012; Bill Bowring
>
> Obviously, the Kremlin is continuing its age-old policy of genocide against
> the Ukrainian language and the Ukrainian nation.
>
>
>
> There appear to be three possible outcomes to Putin's occupation of Crimea.
>
>
>
> (1) Crimea, Ukraine: The pre-invasion status quo would be generally
> maintained with the Ukrainian Navy co-existing with the Russian Black Sea
> Fleet on the peninsula.
>
>
>
> (2) Crimea, Russian Federation: The Ukrainian military basis would have to
> be relocated onto Ukrainian territory. New port facilities for the Ukrainian
> Navy would have to be built in the Odesa area. In the interim, American and
> Turkish NATO warships would be asked to patrol and control the remaining
> Ukrainian coastline. Should Putin invade and try to annex parts of Eastern
> Ukraine (Luhansk, Donetsk), Ukraine would have little choice but to join
> NATO as soon as possible. At any rate, once incorporated into the Russian
> Federation, Crimea would become a full-fledged enemy such that American,
> NATO and Ukrainian missiles would be trained on Sevastopol and Simferopil
> (Simferopol?).
>
>
>
> (3) Crimean Autonomous Republic: The scheduled 16Mar2014 referendum is, of
> course, a farce. Nevertheless, if the citizens (inhabitants?) of Crimea
> should choose this option in an internationally-supervised referendum in
> 2015 or 2016, things become more flexible. They could host both the Russian
> and Ukrainian fleets. Friendly relations could be established with both the
> Russian Federation and Ukraine. There would be less urgency for Ukraine to
> join NATO.
>
>
>
> Tourism and commercial enterprises would not suffer. It is not clear if the
> oil and gas mineral rights along the Crimean coastline would accrue Crimea.
> Of course, tolerance to all languages would have to be established. Crimea
> could become a modern European nation rather quickly.
>
>
>
> I do not profess to have any military expertise, but does my analysis sound
> reasonable?
>
>
>
> Regards
>
> Will Zuzak; 2014.03.09
>
>
>
>
>
>
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b30 : Tue Apr 01 2014 - 00:57:53 EST