1. Ironically, the apparent weakness of the Ukrainian state in the South
appears to be as strength. Putin has been trying to implement identical
scenario to the one already used against Georgia. It looks like this
approach has back-fired due to the fact that the Russian war machine has
not encountered immediate military response. The military is lacking a
clear target and is idling which is never good for any war
machine. Besides
Putin starts loosing his stance internationally, diplomatically and, very
soon, economically.
In this regard activities of so called "right sector" are dangerous and
disturbing. By attacking the Russians in Krym they can easily escalate the
conflict into a full scale war at the time when Ukraine is not ready for
that, yet. The question asked during riots in Kyiv about who people from
"right sector" are still is not answered. They maybe heroes of street
fighting, all-right, but, it does not make them less dangerous
country-wise.
2. The Russian puppets in Krym whose leader is Mr.Aksenov have never been
popular in Krym. During the last elections the Aksenov's pro-Russian
party attracted only whooping 4% of the votes of Krym residents.
Therefore, cutting water and electricity from mainland to Krym is a very
bad idea: 4% will bloat to 54% as the result. I am not saying this tool is
not on the table, but, not now. Hopefully, it will not be needed at
all. At least one will have to create a very strong defense of Kherson: as
soon as the pumps stop supplying water to Krym the military attack will be
inevitable.
3. I completely agree with the three former Ukrainian Presidents that it
is time do denounce the treaty on the naval base lease to station the
Russian Black Sea Fleet. As soon as Putin is forced to back off he will
become vulnerable on this issue and will have to negotiate removal of the
Russian Black Sea Fleet from Krym.
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