http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2014/03/01/invasion-is-imminent-ctd/
Sample:
Obama has threatened<http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2014/02/28/obama_to_putin_there_will_be_costs_to_invading_crimea>
Russia
that there would be unspecified "costs" for what it is doing, but whatever
real costs Russia pays will not be imposed by Western governments or the
U.N. Moscow is not only wrecking its reputation with most Ukrainians, but
it is also potentially risking a ruinous war that could make it a pariah in
much of the world for little real gain.
Western mediation is probably of little use here, but if there is a
government that might be able to get through to Moscow at the moment it
might be Germany. Because Germany has taken Russian interests into account
more often in the past than other major Western governments, it might be
able to defuse the situation before it results in violence and further
escalation. It should go without saying that the U.S. and NATO shouldn't
make any threats to take their own military action or make promises to
Ukraine that everyone already knows they aren't going to keep. They would
be foolish, they wouldn't be meant or taken seriously, and they would only
make the crisis harder to resolve. ...
Annexing Crimea outright would be a clumsy and provocative action that
would leave the new government in Kiev with almost no choice but to fight,
so it seems more likely that there would be an attempt to use continued
control over Crimea as leverage in future dealings with Kiev. Does Russia
"want"<http://www.theamericanconservative.com/why-russia-doesnt-want-crimea/>
Crimea?
Maybe not officially as a part of Russia, but it does seem to want to be
able to use control of it to its advantage. Whether this takes the
form<http://www.theamericanconservative.com/millman/stormd-at-with-shot-and-shell/>
of
phony independence or just autonomy remains to be seen.
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