I think this was obviouus after Georgia was invaded in 2008
http://www.rferl.org/contentlive/live-blog-ukraine-crisis/25312563.html
17:08
In an Op-Ed for "The Washington Post," Estonian President Toomas Hendrick Ilves writes that the West needs a new playbook for dealing with Russia:
Russia's aggression in Ukraine marks a paradigm shift, the end of trust in the post-Cold War order. This order, based on respect for territorial sovereignty, the integrity and inviolability of borders and a belief that relations can be built on common values, has collapsed. International treaties no longer hold, and the use of raw force is again legitimate. In its annexation of Crimea, Russia has thrown the rulebook out the window. The world is back in a zero-sum paradigm. This is not about only Crimea or relations between Ukraine and Russia. The shift has changed the assumptions underlying European security and dealings between democratic states and Russia.
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