I am just reading newspapers, just like you. Well, maybe more because of
my fluency in Ukrainina and Russian. The Ukrainian military finely
entranched two companies of paratroopers at the entrance to Perekop. The
position is between two lakes and from tactical point of view is
strong. However, without havy equipment and solid air defense they will
not last long against a combined air+armor attack. There is an operational
SAM regiment near Kherson, that's good. I hope that reserves and more
defense positions are in works. My impression is that, in general,
the Ukrainian air defense capabilities have not degraded much, except of
fighters/interceptors. There is not much of battle worthy aircraft
left. Which puts the Ukrainian military at big disatvantage if not
outright defeat. Here is an example of perious state of the air force: on
the air base in Krym (basically already lost) there are some 40
MIG-29s, most of them still have traces of the Soviet Air Force insignia,
i.e they are close to 30 years old. Only 4 (Four!) could have been taken
off in the air.
I have had a phone conversation with my friends in Kyiv. There are
long (!) lines of young Ukrainian patriots volunteering to the Army. The
Ukrainians are finely united while facing a common enemy. No surprise
here. My concern is that these days one cannot do much only with
Kalashnikovs. Without heavy equipment and aviation...I do not want even
think about this.
On Wed, 12 Mar 2014, Pavlo Ivanchenko wrote:
> Is the Ukrainian military and the government in Kyiv doing anything to
> secure the dam? How successful have recruitment drives been throughout
> Ukraine thus far? How has the army been deployed to counter the Russian
> build up on its eastern border?
>
> PI
>
>
> On Tue, Mar 11, 2014 at 5:14 PM, Ivan Kravchenko <[email protected]>wrote:
>
> >
> >
> > Actually, it will be Kherson and the river damn nearby first to secure
> > water supply to Krym.
> >
> > On Tue, 11 Mar 2014, Olena Boyko wrote:
> >
> > > This is from private communication. I have erased an identifying items
> > and am sending it only as a FYI to share.
> > >
> > > Putin's Possible Next Move - Mikolayev & Odessa
> > >
> > > I think Putin's next move might be against Mickolayev or Odessa and, if
> > I'm right, it would be catastrophic, for Ukraine, for Europe and for the
> > > US Administration and US global interests in general. I think the US
> > > needs to be ready for this, and hopes that it doesn't happen. The USS
> > > GHW Bush (CVN-77) is currently in Athens. Bring it up to the Black
> > > Sea, along with its battle group, have it stand off of Odessa, and put
> > > up a no-fly zone over both Odessa and Mickolayev. That would deter
> > > the Russians and limit their incursion to Crimea (at least for now).
> > >
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