This afternoon I caught a snippet from an interview with a military
specialist on Veresen's Espreso.tv interview show. Don't know his
name. He stated that although on paper the Russian army is ten times
stronger than Ukraine's, in fact most of these troops are not
"combat-reliable" ("bojezdatni"). He went through some of that, saying
that many such were and had to stay in the Caucasus (otherwise.. boom!
there), and that apart from the Crimean units (15,000 extra such)
there were only some 35,000 available for an invasion of Ukraine. He
thought that a march to Kyiv was beyond their capabilities.
However, note that this Sunday the 16th a big pro-Russian rally is
planned for Kharkiv, where the expected "viche" intends to have a
"public referendum" on the future of the Region, choose a "people's
governor" a la Gubarev, and appeal to Russia for assistance. Add to
that the fear that there are already snipers there ready to fire on
their "own" crowd!! Plus the reality of Russian troops readied at the
Belgorod-Kharkiv border (today's news)... And Kharkiv is only 30
kilometers away or so...
Yesterday on Veresen' another professional, Volokh, had a rather
optimistic view of all this, including the fate of the Crimea==
http://zik.ua/ua/news/2014/03/12/karl_voloh_ne_pospishayte_z_vysnovkamy_pro_krym_469832
He contended that an invasion of "continental Ukraine would inevitably
draw a military response from the U.S."
The only additional sign that this might be so (apart from Dempsey's
statement) is this:
With the nuclear issue topping the discussion list...
Will that, and the EU threatened sanctions stop Putin?
I don't know. But I sense that if he attacks, and if the Ukrainian
resistance slows him down, things could get very very dicey for him
(and for the world)...
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