KIND OF FAR FETCHED, NOT THAT THAT EVER STOPPED PUTIN.
STRAITS ARE NOT NEAR RUSSIAN TERRITORY, TURKEY HAS NAVAL BASES NEAR BLACK SEA ENTRANCE, WHICH IS QUITE WIDE AND DEEP, AND THEY ARE PROBABLY ON HIGH ALERT. IF RUSSIA BLOCKS THE STRAITS, MY SCENARIO IS THAT THEY GET BLOWN UP.
ODESSA'S PORT IS WIDE OPEN, NOT AN ENCLOSED HARBOR LIKE IN OCHAKIV UP THE COAST. NOT POSSIBLE FOR RUSSIAN SHIPS TO APPROACH STEALTHILY. IT IS A SPRAWLING SEAPORT WITH RUMANIAN COAST AT MOST A FEW HOURS AWAY.
Sorry for the caps. I have sailed these waters many times in my sailboat. To block the entrance to Sevastopol harbour is easy as the breakwaters extend way out and the narrow entrance was always booby-trapped. Russian blockade and sunk ship is inside the breakwater.
Lack of foresight that Ukrainian ships did not move out of their slips and stay outside the harbour. Underwater sSabotage was a consideration but I hope there is a Ukrainian Seal Diving Team.
The Russian fleet there would have been decimated if all the Ukrainian captains had taken their ships out of Sevastopol and streamed toward Odessa when independance was declared. We had only one hero, Capt. Nastenko, who saved the Sahaidachnyj for Ukraine. The otehrs chickened out and most of the ships became Russian property.
----- Original Message -----
From: Mike Reshitnyk
To: [email protected]
Sent: Wednesday, March 12, 2014 3:20 PM
Subject: Re: [politics] Fw: Putin's Possible Next Move - Mikolayev & Odessa
". . . The USS GHW Bush (CVN-77) is currently in Athens. Bring it up to the Black Sea, along with its battle group, have it stand off of Odessa, and put up a no-fly zone over both Odessa and Mickolayev . . ."
As warships, and under the Montreux Convention, the United States would have to get permission from Turkey who control the straits (there are two of them) to cross the straits.
Assuming they do, wouldn't it be funny if once in the Black Sea and off Odessa, Russia sinks some blockade ships across the straits - one is about 700m wide, the other about 1200m wide - trapping the aircraft carrier and its escorting battle group?
Of course, this would be in defiance of Turkey and international law and cause tons of additional international problems, but Russia has done stranger things in the past
From: Olena Boyko
Sent: Tuesday, March 11, 2014 9:18 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: [politics] Fw: Putin's Possible Next Move - Mikolayev & Odessa
This is from private communication. I have erased an identifying items and am sending it only as a FYI to share.
Putin's Possible Next Move - Mikolayev & Odessa
I think Putin's next move might be against Mickolayev or Odessa and, if I'm right, it would be catastrophic, for Ukraine, for Europe and for the
US Administration and US global interests in general. I think the US
needs to be ready for this, and hopes that it doesn't happen. The USS
GHW Bush (CVN-77) is currently in Athens. Bring it up to the Black
Sea, along with its battle group, have it stand off of Odessa, and put
up a no-fly zone over both Odessa and Mickolayev. That would deter
the Russians and limit their incursion to Crimea (at least for now).
I was listening.....It was an interview with a commodities trader who, of course,
gets paid by trying to figure out what is the absolute worst-case
scenario, and then figuring out how to deal with it. He said, among
other things, that the commodity that has increased the most this year
was not gold. It is corn. Ukraine is the world's 3rd largest corn
exporter. I think part of the reason, aside from the lousy weather in
the US, is that there is some concern that Odessa and Mickolayev, which
are the 2 largest export terminals in Ukraine will be cut off. If
people are willing to bet money on even this possibility then the US
should listen. American taxpayers pay people to think about what the
absolute worst thing that can happen, and plan for it. Anyway, this
guy convinced me.
Russia shipped a lot of the "troops" who are in Crimea by transport from Sochi, so they now have the ships available in Sevastopol to move to
Odessa and Mickolayev. It would be very easy for the Russians, once
they've secured Crimea, to move all these troops a few miles west and take both of these cities and, effectively, shut down a major part of
Ukraine's economy. It would be the one thing that Putin can do,
today, that would completely wreck the new Ukrainian Govt. I don't
they are going to be deterred by the rhetoric currently coming out of
either the Administration or the EU. In addition, it would secure
Crimea's water and power supply, both of which come from around Mickolayev.
It would be a very simple and low cost move to have the USS GHW Bush and her battle group transit the Bosporus, and I think it would go a long way toward insuring that the worst outcome won't happen.
They could be on station in 2 days.
Conversely, let's consider what would happen if
Putin does move against Mickolayev and Odessa, and it comes out that the
GHW Bush was in Odessa and made no move to transit to the Black Sea.
It would be Benghazi on steroids
Mike Reshitnyk
http://www.pbase.com/madmedic
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