[...]
"Moscow, assisted by the blundering Yanukovych, has over-reached itself and
in so doing is losing the prize it coveted in the first place. No
government in Kiev can submit to Moscow now. Putin has pushed his *near
abroad* further abroad. Russia is forcing Ukraine to make a choice it might
prefer not to make. Should Kiev look east or west? By invading the Crimea
and threatening eastern Ukraine Putin makes that choice for Kiev. It cannot
return to Moscow centre. It must instead, albeit with some trepidation,
look west.
That is, Putin is losing hearts and souls. Ukraine may remain a divided
country but Russia is helping legitimise the new Ukrainian government.
Helping, too, Ukrainians make up their minds. If they were conflicted a few
weeks ago they are a little less conflicted now.
Moreover, Putin's hopes for his Eurasian Economic Union are ruined now. He
has Belarus and Kazakhstan in his pocket and little Armenia may have little
choice but to join. But that's it. Ukraine is the prize and the only one
really worth having. Without Ukraine Putin's pet project is, if not
meaningless, severely devalued. The other former Soviet republics are like
so many toes; Ukraine is an entire leg.
[...]
Not sure I would write off the eastern oblasts quite so quickly, but the
rest of his conclusions are on the money.
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