[ cont’d from Part 1 ]
U.S. officials believe Russian officials persuaded Mr. Yanukovych to finally reverse course in a series of meetings in Sochi in early November.
In one of those meetings, the Russians presented the Ukrainian delegation with a dossier spelling out potential damage to Ukraine's economy if the government moved ahead with the EU agreement, Mr. Yanukovych's advisers told U.S. officials. The dossier, U.S. officials said, set out specific financial losses and percentage declines in such sectors as aerospace and defense.
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Russia has moved military vehicles into place along its border with Crimea
as tensions with Ukraine escalate. Plus, winners, losers and trends from
The Annual Academy Awards.
Photo: AP.
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While top European officials were meeting almost weekly with their Ukrainian counterparts, the U.S. had little in the way of high-level contacts.
But on Nov. 18, a few days after Ambassador Pyatt's unexpected conversation with Mr. Lyovochkyn in the presidential office complex in Kiev, Vice President Joe Biden called Mr. Yanukovych, suggesting the U.S. could help counter Mr. Putin's offer.
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Russia has taken advantage of the new, weak government in Kiev
by swiftly moving its troops into the Ukrainian province of Crimea.
James Marson explains the events that led to this standoff.
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Mr. Biden, during a visit to Ukraine in 2009, had gotten along well with Mr. Yanukovych, a senior administration official said. He seemed receptive to Mr. Biden's blunt style, the official added.
Mr. Biden's message was that the U.S. was prepared to work with both the IMF and the EU "to deliver the support Ukraine needed to get through the economic troubles," said a senior administration official briefed on the call, which Mr. Biden made while visiting Houston.
The next day, Mr. Yanukovych met Stefan Füle, a former Czech foreign minister who was the bloc's point man on the deal, at the presidential palace. As the two officials sipped tea surrounded by top aides, Mr. Yanukovych presented new figures amounting to tens of billions of euros Ukraine would need to see through the reforms embedded in the EU deal.
Frustrated by a fumbling translator and determined to convey a clear message to Mr. Yanukovych, Mr. Füle, who studied in Moscow in the early 1980s, switched into Russian during his response. The EU official rejected the numbers the president was citing and questioned whether Mr. Yanukovych was looking for excuses to justify his reversal.
Mr. Yanukovych didn't respond to the appeals. On Nov. 21, the Ukrainian government announced it was putting the EU deal on hold, blaming the EU for failing to offer enough economic support.
Even then, some European officials hoped Mr. Yanukovych would make a last-gasp change of heart when he arrived at a summit in the Lithuanian capital on Nov. 28, where he was supposed to have signed the deal.
Those hopes were finally dashed that evening in a 75-minute meeting in a sparse meeting room on the ground floor of the Kempinski Hotel in Vilnius' central square.
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Mr. Yanukovych told the EU's two top officials he could advance the bilateral deal but offered no time frame for signing it, and demanded three-way talks with Russia and the EU in the meantime, according to a person familiar with the discussions.
Those were deal-breakers for European Commission President José Manuel Barroso and European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, who refused to give Moscow direct say over the fate of a bilateral EU-Ukraine pact.
The meeting ended in farce the next day. After the summit was formally over and faced with growing protests at home over his U-turn on the EU deal, Mr. Yanukovych rushed over to Mr. Van Rompuy and Mr. Barroso to urge them to agree to a Ukrainian drafted joint statement saying talks would continue. It is too late, the EU leaders told him.
U.S. officials said they believed Mr. Yanukovych was looking for the easiest way to raise cash, regardless of the strings attached. EU officials said they weren't prepared to match the eventual $15 billion loan package from Moscow.
U.S. officials tried to convince Mr. Yanukovych it was a bad deal. Moscow offered Ukraine cheap natural gas for three months. After that, prices would rise and Ukraine would be required to buy more, increasing the country's dependence on Russia.
In his calls, Mr. Biden warned the besieged Ukrainian leader that he was "behind the curve" and putting himself in an "impossible position," said a senior administration official briefed on the calls.
View Slideshow
GRAPHIC
Russia released photos of Vladimir Putin with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu,
left, and commander Anatoly Sidorov at maneuvers near St. Petersburg.
Kremlin Press Pool/Associated Press
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U.S. officials said Mr. Yanukovych was responsive at times, reversing some of the government's anti-protest laws after one of Mr. Biden's calls. "But it would always be grudging and halfhearted and too late," a senior administration official said.
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In an Oval Office meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,
President Barack Obama warned Russia over its actions in Ukraine.
Photo: AP
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In Washington, Mr. Biden pushed to "wield the threat of sanctions" if Mr. Yanukovych decided to crack down on protesters, a message the vice president conveyed directly in a Dec. 6 call. But the Europeans were torn about sanctions, arguing against the risk of backing the Ukrainian leader into a corner.
U.S. officials said the tipping point came on Jan. 16, when Mr. Yanukovych pushed through laws that effectively banned peaceful protests and outlawed opposition group activities. State Department officials and intelligence analysts warned the White House that Ukraine could be engulfed in civil war.
In the last week of January, at a Situation Room meeting at the White House, Mr. Biden urged the administration to spell out in more detail what financial aid would be provided if Mr. Yanukovych and the opposition cut a deal, said U.S. officials briefed on the session. Mr. Biden was backed by Secretary of State John Kerry, officials said, and President Barack Obama agreed.
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GRAPHIC
Vladimir Putin attended Russian military exercises near St. Petersburg
on Monday as tensions rose over Russian troops in Crimea.
Via The Foreign Bureau, WSJ's global news update. Photo: AP
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A few days later, Mr. Kerry huddled with senior European officials on the sidelines of a security conference in Munich and delivered Mr. Obama's message: Get money ready, according to officials briefed on the discussions.
In February, EU foreign ministers closed ranks with the U.S., saying they would respond quickly if the situation deteriorated, and, later, agreeing on sanctions.
Mr. Kerry was in Paris in the third week of February for meetings when his French, German and Polish counterparts decided to fly to Kiev to try to broker a deal between Mr. Yanukovych and opposition leaders. The U.S. was skeptical, but Mr. Kerry and Mr. Biden agreed to help behind the scenes.
In the end, U.S. officials said, they believed Mr. Yanukovych got cold feet about the power-sharing proposals, and then he disappeared. Many street protesters, meanwhile, resented the U.S. for saying it wanted to work with Mr. Yanukovych instead of booting him.
The Obama administration is now preparing sanctions to respond to Russia's military intervention. "We're not putting Europe in the lead on this anymore," a senior U.S. official said.
—Naftali Bendavid contributed to this article.
Write to Adam Entous at [email protected] and Laurence Norman at [email protected]
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